Is statistical inaccuracy hurting your business?
admin on Jun 28th 2008
A few posts back in my blog, I mentioned that I’m looking for a new job. Well, looking is kind of a strange word. Really I’ve been thinking about what I should write in my resume, evaluating the places where my friends and family work, and deciding just how far out on the limb I want to walk.
I don’t hate my job. (well maybe thats a lie, I’m not really sure) Recently though I feel like I don’t have any choice in looking for a new employer. You see I can no longer go to work each day secure in knowing that I’ll be able to pay the rent next month. Costs always seem to go up, but pay doesn’t. I would feel bad asking my boss for a raise because I am probably the most highly paid employee he has. I also feel bad leaving because I do know it would hurt the company to lose me.
The underlying problem is that I commute to work. The easiest choice for me to make would be to take on a few extra hours per week. An extra 10 hours a week would put me in a comfortable position financially. Provided I could work the extra hours at the right times, (say an extra 2 hours a shift) I wouldn’t even notice the extra work. The problem is that some bean counter convinced the corporate stiffs that paying overtime costs the company big money.
I can see a pretty good mental image of how the presentation went. Flow charts showing huge numbers that could be saved if they never payed anyone time and a half would be strewn about as mr. bean happily demonstrates how smart he thinks he is. All the while the shareholders have dreams of gold filling their pockets. The sad fact is that this same misconception has been fed to most all major corporations.
The idea that paying overtime costs a company is a falsehood. Anyone who has had the priveledge to manage a group of a few dozen people can tell you there are good apples and there are bad ones. Some people show up with no intention to work and simply stay milking the payroll budget until someone eventually gives them the boot. Others show up and work hard all day regardless of outside factors. The latter group always makes an investment of their own selves to do more. They learn the things they need to make the job more efficient. They strive for knowledge, and they feel good about increasing their productivity.
Right now I have four people who work at our receiving dock. If I could fire three of them and clone the fourth one to fill the other three spots my productivity would change. Depending on who I cloned productivity would either be three times as good or half as good. Every person has their own individual talents, but the truth be told most of them don’t have any talent for work at all. Here’s where the fallacy comes into play. By forcing your associates to a maximum amount of hours there is no way I can ever get more than 40 hours out of my best team member. No matter how you break it down at some point I have to give up on using someone truly valuable and trade that in for someone average or worse.
If lazy dude only works half as hard as uber dude, I actually lose money by giving hours to lazy dude. If uber dude makes $10 an hour and lazy dude only makes $7.50 I can pay uber dude time and a half and still get as much done as if I had two lazy dudes. The simple truth is that even though it looks like I’m spending more per hour for uber dude, the cost per unit of labor is roughly the same. Here’s where the balance is tipped: Lazy dude doesn’t have any pride in his work. Uber dude goes home with a sense of pride at a job well done. When you take away the ability to complete a job and go home with that sense of pride all of a sudden Uber dude becomes just another Lazy dude. Why should I work hard this company doesn’t care about me or the quality of my work?
The numbers can’t really be quantized so there is little chance that companies will catch on and realize that they are hurting themselves by sticking to lousy statistics. Its this same underlying feeling that keeps me looking for a new job. I would much rather spend the extra few hours a week at my company. It would be rewarding for me, both monetarily and emotionally. It simply isn’t an option.
I’m left with only two options. One is to get another job full time that lets me work some overtime or pays better. The other is to take on a second job part time. The latter is out of the question though. I commute to work for almost two hours a day. There is no time left for that second job. Its just more economically viable to simply find a new job. Don’t forget the savings in gasoline, and I can probably spend the two hours I spend driving, working instead.
The bogus statistics that the bean counters have come up with sound real good and they are supported by real numbers. They just arent accurate because they don’t guage outside factors that truly affect the reality. My company is going to lose me, along with my conciderable talent and experience because they have more faith in statistics than they do in the honest hard working employees who are the backbone of their organisation.
There’s really no point in my ever having written this. I wouldn’t bother trying to make this point to my boss or his boss. I wouldn’t even ask them for the overtime, knowing full well I couldn’t get it anyways. The company has already lost me. Its been a done deal ever since I came to the realization that I am only a number. Well I’ve always known that, but now I have a much better idea of just how small that number really is. This post will never find its way to help me, but I hope someday it influences some bean counter to realize the statistical error and maybe it changes the way some company treats their employees.
Your employees make all the money your company earns. Your managers produce NONE of it. They are both an integral part of the system, but the bottom line is that too many companys don’t see the true imbalance and how they are hurting themselves. The next time you hear of a CEO making $500 Million a year ask yourself is he really worth that much. Or perhaps is he just getting too big a cut of the other employees wages? Realistically is there anything they do that someone else couldn’t do and wouldn’t be willing to do for $50 thousand a year?
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A day of fun at the theme park.
admin on Jun 21st 2008
During this last week I actually took a day off from work and went to a theme park. It was for me kind of a strange experience. After my dad had his heart attack I decided come hell or high water I am going to make time to have some fun. I caught a glympse of myself going down the same path he did, working every day and waiting for life to be over. So this time when the opportunity to spend a day on the rides came up I said “Screw the job, I’m going.” I have to admit that it felt good.
As I walked through the park thoughts of the last time I visited came back and I realized just how long it has been. Rides I went on last time aren’t there anymore. Dozens of new roller coasters have sprung up. Going on a thursday morning I realized just how many people are able to do thngs like that regularly where this was a once in a decade visit for me. The park was positively packed with people and it wasn’t even a weekend.
I don’t really have a profound thought to put foreward in todays blog. I feel totally relaxed and ready to go back to the grind for at least a few more days. I spent the better part of the day trying to keep my nephew from getting onto rides he shouldn’t and convincing my niece to get on rides she should. (she’s positively terrified of even the kiddie rides) I had to bribe her to get onto each of them that I managed to get her to ride. Once she rides them I’m sure next year they’ll be fond memories and she will want to ride them but she needed alot of prodding to get her past the fear. I even managed to get my mom onto the tilt-a-whirl. She needed quite abit of convincing that she wasn’t too old to go on the rides as well.
Aside from that I visited a few of the bigger roller coasters, and spent a while on a water park bench. There is a certain wonderment that only comes from watching young ladies in string bikinis playing amidst the water. I’ve always been too worthless to go and join them, but the simple pleasure of viewing the spectacle is something I will never deny myself of.
All in all the experience was a right solid good day. Even if I did feel out of place.
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I say we hike up the gas price to $15 per gallon.
admin on Jun 14th 2008
Recently I’ve been thinking alot about changing jobs. Some people seem to be able to accomplish this simple task almost on a whim. I get really hung up on making such massive life change though. I took a job that requires me to drive for nearly an hour each way when my last employer went under. The severance package I got from my previous employer was quite nice and I found myself getting double paychecks for several months after changing jobs. This huge extra income masked the true expense of traveling so far just enough that I didn’t realize exactly how bad it was until after I got settled into the new rut. The sad truth is that the only real reason I chose this new job is because it was easy. Someone I knew offered me the position and I didn’t have to apply so I took it. I’m the hardest working lazy person you’ll ever meet.
With gas prices stedily climbing I’ve started to realize that I’m going to have to get serious about making a real job (and life) change soon. Here’s the math that’s getting me proof of the need to change.
Lets say I were to take a job making minimum wage at about $7 an hour, but I only walk 5 minutes to work and I work for 10 hours a day five days a week. ($7 x 40 = $280) + ($10.50 x 10 = $105) = $385 per week.
Now lets figure out my $12 an hour job at 38 hours per week (never any overtime) I get $456 per week on my check. From that $456 you take away the $72 a week I spend in gas money and you come out with $384 per week. Seems about equal in the pay, but I am working 12 less hours a week right? No because I’m spending 2 hours a day driving to and from work. Even though I am not actually at work I have to spend 10 hours a week of my own personal time unpaid driving to and from my job. The reality is that its a break even situation. I’m probably losing money already if you throw in vehicle maintenance and associated costs.
Where the scale is tipping balance is that the price for gas has gone up half a dollar in the last year. So the $72 a week I spend in gas is now closer to $82 per week. Throw in that I’m sure I can get a job closer to home that pays more than minimum wage and you see how it simply isn’t economical to travel to work anymore.
I wouldn’t want anyone reading this to think I’m just another stupid american bitching about the price of gas. The truth is I think the cost of gas going up is a great thing. I wish it would get closer to $15 a gallon. The blind masses of the american people will never open their eyes to the damage they are doing to the environment with their millions of cars polluting the atmosphere. I can’t blame that entirely on people bing stupid though. It is more the nature and tendancy of people to follow along the easiest path. Its just easier to drive to work than to ride the bus. I hate to admit it, but I’m one of those people blindly following the same path.
I used to think about global warming and wonder when the end of the world would come. You see I could see that we were polluting the earth, but I couldn’t see how the earth was going to fight back. It seemed the planet was destined to lose the battle and we were going to be the eventual downfall of ourselves. I know all about the prinicpal of equilibrium but I couldn’t see its effect on a global scale. With the rise in gas prices I’m starting to get a glympse of how equilibrium will balance the pollution with lack of natural resources. A little too much of the Polar Ice caps may have melted to make me comfortable with the situation, but at least I see there is a chance the earth might survive yet.
Now I just need to do my part and get over my fear of change. I need to get that new job closer to home. Its whats right for me. Its whats right for the planet. I just wonder what this invisible barrier that holds me back is. I know its fear, but I can’t comprehend the full scope of where it comes from and how to defeat it. If I could just conquor this deep seeded fear I would become a truly great human bieng. (albiet still an asshole, but there’s no cure for that)
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Going off the social grid Part 1.
admin on Jun 7th 2008
As a child I was fortunate to have grown up in a most unique position. Its true that some of the things that went into my childhood have made me into what I would call a broken man. I don’t seem to be able to function quite right in and around others. Still some of the things I went through as a child have also made me see things from a unique perspective. Without going into much detail I will say that I was raised home built at the turn of the century (1890’s). This house was a spectacular marvel compared to the more modern homes my few friends inhabited.
Built by or for a polygamist mormon family the home had all sorts of hidden passages, and it was quite spacious. Three floors and 10 bedrooms. There was a bomb shelter that ran under the backyard, and a secret tunnel from the bomb shelter that ran to an adjoining one at the neighbors house. The next door house was built at the same time, but of the two homes mine was lived in, while the one next door was declared a historical landmark. It had been fixed up, preserved, and used mostly to show off.
Also due to my situation I was mostly alone for my childhood. I always had a roof over my head in this big house, but my parents weren’t around. I lived with my grandmother. From about the time I was eight years old she was in a wheelchair so I had almost complete freedom to do whatever I wanted growing up. There are some stories there that I won’t go into, but suffice it to say I’d probably still be in prison for some of the stupid shit I did as a teenager.
My grandfather was a world war II veteran, but he died sometime before I took up residence in my grandmothers house. Since the lowest floor of the house was not connected to the top two floors it was mostly used to store all the junk my grandparents had. A basement full of tube radios, tools, and various life accessories from the 40’s. There was a whole room full of bottled fruit food storage, and I’m sure some of it probably dated all the way back to when my grandfather was still alive. There were also giant wooden racks with screens that were built for drying fruit.
What I am getting to is an observation about something I witnessed often as a child. In back of the house we had at least half dozen golden delicious apple trees. As a child I would often climb a tree, sit up there picking and eating apples right from the tree. The few adults who would come around would pick apples and bring them into the house. I guess in their lives they had been taught to pick the apples and preserve them so that in times of hardship there would be food. Something I vaguely understood but I am sure most children and people my age won’t even grasp. It was more of a way of life than a weekend project.
Any number of times in my life I have seen a basket of fresh apples set on a table while the best ones are taken away and eventually the worst looking ones turn to rot and were thrown out. With so many producing trees and never selling the apples there were plenty to spare. I remember an experience recently as I bought golden delicious apples at the grocery store and thinking back to my childhood. I probably paid more than a dollar per apple for the good looking ones. Knowing that I am sure the trees in my grandmothers house probably produced five to ten thousand dollars worth of fruit each year.
I’ve wandered off topic again, but what I wanted to talk about in my blog today is how an apple rots. You see if you set an apple on the counter and leave it long enough the inside will turn brown. Then the skin will turn dark yellow. Eventually it turns mushy and almost black. Of course it never gets to that stage before thosands of tiny fruit flys appear. It is this phoenomenon that my observation relates to. Where exactly do these tiny fruit flys come from? Why does the fruit start to rot in the center first? I suspect the answer lies in the fact that the rot is and always has been there inside the core.
This truth is in all things. Humans are just like fruit. We are born, we ripen, then we rot and we get recycled back into the earth. It may seem like a far off topic, but I’m thinking of life in general and my life in this great country as I write this. I love the united states and I genuinely believe this is the greatest place in the world. However I also have seen the rot that exists within our core and I know that even though the apple isn’t showing brown the maggots are there. Within our politics, our religeons, and amongst our people the corruption is growing. As much as I love my country I know she is a beautiful animal that is eventually fated to die.
After 9/11 this country changed. While everything feels the same to the blind masses, some of the mechanisms behind the machine were changed out. A person used to be able to go get a bank account, find a job, go shopping, and live day to day without the government interfering in our lives. The fear created by 9/11 has changed that. At this time to get a bank account you must indentify yourself to the bank so the government can track your money. To get a job you must have a bank account in order to get paid. To go shopping even for the essentials you have to have money and so just to live you must always be under uncle sam’s watchful eyes.
I don’t really know why exactly, but somewhere along the way I made the decision that I want to establish a second identity. I want to put together a name, a bank account, a credit card, maybe even a social security or tax id number that belongs to a ficiticious person. I don’t really have any intent to do wrong with this identity. I just see so much of the corruption and the decay in society today that I feel like to be safe I need to do this.
Its probably the same instinct that has crazy nut jobs stockpiling weaponry in their basments. (note to self add buy guns to task list…) Still I am going to go on with this idea at some point. I looked around the net for some ideas and I’ve decided it will probably take between two thousand and ten thousand dollars to truly establish a totally unique identity. At this point I don’t have have even the two thousand to spare so I won’t proceed right away. I suspect the ten thousand mark is more likely to be a realistic figure. I do intend to make this blog into a multi post series documenting my progress. The next post on this topic will likely be in a few months when I have saved enough money to take the first step.
In the mean time, while I am squirreling away money I would like to have your comments and ideas. I can see how to create an income online with some work. I have some ideas on how to establish a bank account without an ID. I feel like to make this really a success though I need to find a way to get a legitmate ID under a bogus name. Any thoughts on how this might be done? Also, how do you all suppose I should chose the name of my new identity? Maybe something with a hidden hacker meaning would be cool. (to be continued in part 2…)
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